Future Heavy-Lift Launch Market Open to U.S. Providers

Produced by BryceTech

BryceTech projects near-term growth in spacecraft and heavy-lift launches open to U.S. commercial providers, driven primarily by the deployment of megaconstellations.

Near-term the average annual number of spacecraft open to launch from U.S. providers is about 3,100, with about 1,900 being non-Starlink spacecraft. Between 2029 and 2033, the average is about 2,500 spacecraft per year.

Heavy-lift launches will play a central role, with an estimated annual average of 110 launches from 2024 to 2028, decreasing to an average 50 launches annually from 2029 to 2033.

Note: Forecast data does not include spacecraft captive to international launch providers.